Submarket map, by strategy
| Strategy | Where it works | What to expect |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term SFR rental | Escondido, San Marcos, inland Carlsbad | 4.5–5.8% cap |
| STR (where allowed) | Carlsbad 92008, select Encinitas | 8–14% gross yield |
| Buy-add-ADU | Encinitas, Cardiff, Leucadia | 12–18% IRR (5-yr) |
| Coastal appreciation hold | Solana Beach, Del Mar, Cardiff | 6–9% IRR (10-yr) |
| SB-9 lot split | Case-by-case, R-1 zoning | 15–25% IRR if it pencils |
What you get
- Pro forma model. Acquisition through 5-year exit, with sensitivity on rent, vacancy, exit cap, and rate.
- STR feasibility. Current municipal rules, AirDNA comps, and a defensible revenue projection.
- ADU + SB-9 feasibility. Pre-purchase entitlement read with a pre-vetted architect intro.
- 1031 sequencing. Identification window, replacement vetting, QI handoff.
Frequently asked
- Does coastal North County actually pencil as a rental?
- On pure cash flow, rarely. Long-term hold with appreciation, principal pay-down, and the tax shield is where the math wins. STR pencils in specific zips that still allow it — Carlsbad 92008 and a few Encinitas pockets — but the regulation risk is real.
- What submarkets have the best cap rates?
- Inland — Escondido, San Marcos, parts of Vista — for cash flow. Coastal for appreciation and tax-advantaged equity build. The right answer depends on whether your portfolio needs yield or growth.
- Can you help with a 1031 exchange?
- Yes. I work with two qualified intermediaries and have closed dozens of exchanges. We sequence identification and replacement on a tight timeline with backup properties pre-vetted.
- What about ADUs and SB-9 splits?
- Both are live in North County. An ADU typically runs $250–400K and adds 8–12% to the property value plus rental income. SB-9 splits are case-by-case — I run feasibility before you buy.